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Thank you NFL Network for the Football Withdrawal Weekend Broadcast.  Watching the Super Bowl 43 thriller, Steelers  vs Cardinals  and the Patriots vs Giants in the insanity from Super Bowl 42 . . not sure which  one I loved more.   Santonio Holmes made a game winning catch for the Steelers that indeed rivals ODB’s one handed magic.

Onward to the 2016 rookies that we need to start to get familiar with.

QB

  • Carson Wentz, North Dakota State – big body, big arm,played vs inferior defenses, experienced in NFL offense
  • Jared Goff,  California – west coast pocket passer – played in spread offense, super accurate short and medium
  • Conner Cook ,Michigan State – has all tools, smart, tough, smooth arm power, had dinged up shoulder end of year
  • Paxton Lynch, Memphis – top end athlete – more raw than ready but with a ton of upside, limited pro style work
  • Christian Hackenberg, Penn State – cannon arm, smart, leader, little under center time, Bill O’Brien developed

RB

  • Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State, 3 down workhorse, elite pass blocking, starter day 1
  • Alex Collins, Arkansas – nice pass catching skills, power back, 3 years in a row over 1,000 yard sin the SEC !
  • Derrick Henry, Alabama – big bodied one cut runner for zone blocking teams – needs to be with elite OL coach
  • Devontae Booker, Utah – 24 year old rookie and health concerns could make him a bargain for you in August
  • Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech – reads the blocking and executes, game production much better than skills

WR

  • Corey Coleman, Baylor – run after the catch playmaker
  • Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss – physical between the hash high effort player
  • Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh – always seems to move the chains – blue collar worker
  • Josh Doctson, TCU – huge catch radius, great leaping skills, limited experience in route trees, QB friendly
  • Michael Thomas, Ohio State – fantastic tactician, uses skills to get separation,  great ball skills, high end #2

TE

  • Hunter Henry, Arkansas – full force player, all around player, move TE, blocking TE,
  • Bryce Williams, East Carolina
  • Jerrell Adams, South Carolina
  • Nick Vannett, Ohi State
  • Tyler Higbee, Western Kentucky

 

We are all faced with limited time and face information overload, making it hard to spend time looking at offensive lineman.  However,  we have all experienced, a team acquiring one of the top 2 or 3 tackles in a draft class  having a profound impact to the offense.   A team drafting  a top caliber offensive tackle that steps right in and plays at a high level can energize a running game and give that team’s passing attack a boost.    So keep an eye on where these 3 guys go:

  •  Larry Tunsil, Ole Miss – day one starter, dominating pass protection and run blocking
  • Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame – could also find himself in the top 5 discussions
  • Jack Conklin, Michigan State – will be a QB’s best friend as soon as he acclimates to NFL speed.

 

 

 

 

February 14th, 2016

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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A look back at what we were talking about in August utilizing what we call  Zero RB drafting.

The fantasy community now regularly talks about the Zero RB Draft Strategy.   The definition of this strategy can be defined as follows:

In Rounds  – 1 thru 5 take elite WR, TE and QB players.  Do not get yourself worked up to take a RB in round 4 or 5 just because some teams have three. You will load up on upside flyer RB prospects throughout the remaining rounds.

Exceptions can be made when a very good value RB has fallen in your draft into Round 4 or 5, but it has to be a RB that belonged in round 3 for a 4rth round RB pick, or belonged in round 4 for a 5th round RB selection.

The draft plan calls for selecting  3-4 WR,0- 1 Qb,0- 1 TE in rounds 1-5.  After that, the strategy is to continue selecting the best player but with an eye for RB to fill out your rosters.  If the draft falls correctly try to grab a RB in rounds 6 and 7.  These 2 RB’s should fall into one of two categories; 1) Highest floor RB still available 2) A player you are convinced is going to perform that the fantasy community at large is not

It is NOT mandatory to take a RB in rounds 6 and 7.  Sitting  with no RB does not mean  you select Reggie Bush  5 rounds ahead of his ADP.   Do not let the lack of RB’s  on your squad push you to add RB’s  way ahead of ADP.  There is a whole band of targets to pick thru, see below.

The logic behind this approach is based on the volatility at the RB position.  It is a position that has the highest rate of substitution, a high rate of injury  and the lowest rate of repeating performance (53% of the top 12 repeat into the top 12 the next year) compared to WR, TE QB.   An early pick at RB provides the greatest risk for not meeting expectations compared to say a WR(73%).

The Zero RB Draft strategy provides for the most fun at drafting you will have all year.  Your team will be rocking at WR, TE QB and you will spend the rest of the draft trying to overcome a huge hole in your lineup.  Every pick will carry more meaning than any draft you previously participated in.   Additionally, you will watch the other teams picks closer than normal.

Therefore, if we can determine the “gems’ at RB left available after round 5 we can set up our roster for a championship run.    Let’s take a look at who will be on the board and who could be part of your RB stable.

Tevin Coleman / Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

This pair sits atop my target list once round 6 begins.   Coleman represents a high upside and will cost you a pick in round 7, while Freeman is free falling and will be there in late single digit rounds and double digit rounds.   The Atlanta team will be a passing team, but one of these RB will be a decent floor guy every week.

The end game is to draft Coleman, the rookie.  Freeman  did not inspire many last year, don’t expect him to hold off  Coleman long.    If Coleman learns the playbook quickly and does his part at blitz pick up, it is not a stretch to see him starting week 1!

Shane Vereen, Andre Williams / Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

Select Vereen, best upside of the entire list of RB on this list.  If he starts hot and connects with Eli and OC Ben McAdoo he will steal tons of touches away from Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams.    Vereen has posted back to back 50 catch seasons, a very worthy RB1-2 when your roster is stacked at WR,TE,QB.

Shane signed with the Giants for  decent bonus money and solid guarantee money.    Jennings is a very good back but I am willing to depend on his health holding him back.  Andre WIliams and Shane Vereen make a very good 1-2 RB squad for this team.

Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys

Randle is the second best upside RB here.  McFadden is the only player that wil take touches from  Randle.  Jerry Jones made this happen because he is convinced the former Razorback is elite . . . . . to bad.   The Cowboys had been making nice progress until Jerry let his emotions back into his GM role.  Let folks get scared off by McFadden and select Randle.  He has also struggled with health but the upside behind this OL is huge.   The only threat to Randle is a pre-season trade or pick up after July-August cuts,

Latavius Murray, Roy Helu,  RB, Oakland

Murray is a sexy pick based on the flair form last years big games.   That 90 yard TD run vs KCC still has fantasy owners all over him in early drafts.  Keep in mind he left that game after 4 carries.  He finished the season 23-86 vs Buffalo and  10-37 vs Denver .  Hardly inspiring numbers.  Richardson averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last year, dreadful numbers, Murray has not even come close to proving he can  carry the load for a season.

Only Roy Helu has some peaked interest for a low floor season.  His 3 healthy seasons he posted near 50 receptions.    In the Raider offense he looks good for 40+ catches and 4-0 yards on the ground.  What will hold him back in this draft strategy is the opportunity for Touchdowns are scarce.

Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens

Wonderful rookie pass catching  rookie RB who fits in the scheme Trestman want to play.   Allen can be had in near double digit rounds.  He represents a player with high upside to add to pool.   Extremely productive  player who can catch naturally, pass block and play smart football.    He may not be a regular until mid season but well worth the add.  If he flames out he is a cut player to use in your waiver strategy,

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Pats

He Patriots did not add a RB in the draft, nor did they pick up an UFA.   That speaks volumes about the RB plans for 2015.  Blount will be a steady touch guy and expect him to work in tandem with T Cadet regularly.  However, the Patriots  will frustrate the hell out of you  trying to handicap the RB game plan.   The Patriots can move in and out a RB dependent on the matchup.    Blount is a high risk pick, add that you then have to pick the right week to start him and it is like playing Roulette.

Charles  Simms / David Martin, RB, Buc’s

These two backs are perfect for zero running back drafting, Simms will be a decent floor guy to get you some points each week.  Martin could blow up running behind an improved OL and a mobile rookie RB looking for some love out of the running game.

Theo Riddick / Joique Bell, RB, Lions

David Johnson / Chris Johnson, Arizona

Chris Johnson gets a lot of disrespect – he could be a round 7,8,9 target worthy of your investment,  try to handcuff him with David Johnson.  If the news on Ellington come your fantasy draft time is good it may depress Johnson even more down the boards.  All  3 of these backs are ones to watch and try to sneak aboard at value.   One of them will get the confidence of Arians – – bet on CJ2K, Johnson then Ellington.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

113 catches over the last 2 years and averaged over 4 yards a carry.  Is heading into his 10th year, resulting in his ADP dropping down fast.   Street talk that he could be a camp cut and find his way to the Patriots or Cowboys.  A watch player.

Isiah Crowell, RB, Browns

The rookie selection of Duke Johnson will send Isiah down boards, a gem for a double digit draft pick and will be nice as a spot starter.

Ryan Matthews, Darren Sproles , RB, Eagles

The Eagles run game performance after Murray will look a lot like the Patriots.

Bishop Sankey / David Cobb, RB Titans

DeAngelo Williams , RB, Steelers

Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami

Denard Robinson, RB, Jags

February 9th, 2016

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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If you think DT looks confused this year with he Broncos - - - what about this September?

Well folks, the season came to a thundering end Sunday,  as the Broncos found a way to edge out the Panthers.   Like many fantasy seasons there are many lessons to learn from the Bronco’s 2015 season.

Rule 1:

It only matters how you play at the end once you make the playoffs

Rule 2:

Yardage is Yardage, it is never ugly yardage . . . . sure looked like it on Sunday though

Rule 3:

Big Plays win Championships . . . often by big players  . . . . . Hello Mr Von Miller.  While he was a defensive  (IDP) impact player for this game, the same lesson applies to our fantasy teams on offense . . . . in the end there will be 2 players making big plays in YOUR big game.  Go with the upside players.

Rule 4:

On draft day, if you love your team . . . . you are in trouble.

Rule 5:

On draft day, if you don’t like your team . . you are in the hunt

Rule 6:

Waiver wire activity builds more championships than the the players drafted . . . TRUE!   This year we all witnessed David Johnson,  Ted Ginn and Kamar Aiken literally bring home the bacon for many GM’s

Rule 7:

Bob vision is right more often than not

Rule 8:

Per Chris – Bob Vision belongs on the X Files

Rule 9:

Every year when we interview Champions from formats in all the majors, FFPC, FFWC, KFFSC, SBFFC, etc they all have one thing in common . . . .  enormously active in Waiver Wire work.   So yes . . Waivers in 2 rules . . . . because it is that important.

Rule 10:

Search and seek the bargain players in rounds 7-14 . . . . nailing weekly contributors here is the best foundation you can lay for your team.  This includes saying away from any QB until  the 8th round, never drafting 2 RB’s in rounds 1 and 2 and waiting on TE till after round 6.

 

February 8th, 2016

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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At this point in the season irregardless of the format you participate in reality has stepped up and bit you.   Playoff dreams are long gone, in reach or looking good.    Every year, every player, from the pros to first timers enjoy dealing with these three scenarios.

So . . . it’s GUT CHECK time!

Looking at your standings , you are 3-5 and there is only one path to follow.  The next 3 weeks hit your waivers hard, work it and evaluate up and coming talent.  All the prep work you do now, will pay off double come next August.  This type of scouting where you are watching players getting increased snaps gives you an edge over owners not watching with an eye to 2016.   There are 4 owners in your league that are focused on what players can do for them this year in the playoff run.   Meanwhile you are looking for impact in 2016.

Look at players  getting opportunities in specific game scenarios,  particularly   on NFL teams that are also well out of playoff contention.    NFL teams sporting similar records to you will want to get bench players snaps to determine value in 2016.    As an example, 4 owners are evaluating if Malcolm Floyd, WR, Chargers, can help them on the bench for their playoff run  . . . . you however should be watching to determine if he will be a solid #2 to Keenan Allen in 2016 to help you slot him on your draft board.

Watch with close detail any snaps by promising rookies or 1st , 2nd year players.

David Johnson, RB Arizona is getting lost among CJ2’s remarkable run and in  Andre Ellington  coming off the injury report.   2016 will be a new year in Arizona,  Chris Johnson is nowhere a lock to be the same player in 2016.   Andre Ellington is not a 15-20 touch a week guy.

Jeremy Langford , RB, Chicago, will get his chance to replace the injured Matt Forte.  His audition might only be 2-3 weeks, but it is a sneak peek of where head coach John Fox will go next year.  The Bears are a great team to scout right now.  They are not fantasy darlings so many owners devalue them because of the erratic Jay Cutler.   Next year, Kevin White is essentially a bonus 1st round pick, to start the rebuilding.   Expect Cutler and Forte to exit.

Matt Jones, RB, Washington,   this rookie is well known and not close to a secret, but your job is to evaluate him as the RB1 next year and would you draft him in the top 10 in 2016.   Alfred Morris is leaving in 2016, he is a free agent.   With Callahan setting up that OL he is already moving towards that ranking.  Watch the Washington team, do you think the organization is starting to turn the corner and will field a competitive unit?  A solid competitive team means an improved steady week to week running game.

Amer Abdullah, RB, Lions, another promising rookie who has fizzled in the Lions disastrous season.    Important to watch and scout Abdullah as a feature back in 2016.   The front office has already been canned and Caldwell will follow them in December.   There is no question he will be the lead back in 2016, but you need to watch to help determine how far up the board you would draft him.  A great team to watch, as once again owners will be down on the dysfunction here.  Expect a turning of the torch, Tate for Calvin and Amer for Bell 100%.

Others to Watch:  DeVante Parker, WR – Miami, he will be the WR2 in 2016  /     Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles  /  Stephon Diggs, WR , Vikings, (red hot now, scout to see of he and Charles Johnson can make Mike Wallace obsolete) Also evaluate Teddy, can he make these WR options steady WR 2 candidates for you in 2016  /     Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore   /  Charles Simms, RB, Bucs, will be a threat to Doug Martin in 16  /  Dorial Green Beckham, WR, Titans  /   Thomas Rawls RB, Seattle, he has faded from view as Beast has re-emerged, however, 2016 Marshawn may make good on his efforts to retire or get punted elsewhere  /   Melvin Gordan, RB, Chargers.

Despite your best efforts, at 3 and 5 staying on top of your game provides 3 benefits.  1) You will be better prepared in 2016, 2)  You will have some fun knocking off a playoff team, you know that great feeling that if the schedule had been different you would be 5-3, there is some satisfaction to that . . . . right?  3) Work to max out your points to see how your team ranked in total points.

A last action to take, print off the league draft report.  Write down few remarks about the draft and why you went for certain players.   Pay particularly attention to  guys that have under performed and over produced where they were drafted.    Take these note out next July as a watch out for patterns or habits that over influence you.    The best example here is if you drafted some players with a slant towards a favorable Strength of Schedule or expected great QB play.

November 7th, 2015

Posted In: 2016 Draft, Draft Rankings, Fantasy Football Rankings, Strategy

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Hankerson has pushed Roddy to the curb.

We head into week 4 – and yes, for some of you the 1/3 mark of the regular season.   That is why you spend early sometimes, getting the benefit of the player you acquired for 12 games rather than 8 or 4.  Naturally you have to hit, and pick up a legit contributor, but if you have listened to the show,  players like Deon Lewis, Leonard Hankerson, (6-103 a TD on 8 targets),  Karlos Williams and Tavon Austin might be helping you out.

Texans – Foster owners relax, give it another week, 8 for 12,  Polk is a 100% drop.    Devonta Freeman is long gone, if not, 25% of your budget%, he owns the spot, Coleman is due back to practice this week.

Dolphins, with the coaching change watch for Kenny Stills to make himself knows.   I still like Jonas Gray, RB as a deep sleeper, $1.

Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore, with the Steve Smith injury he could have 1-2 decent weeks. He had 2-17 on the ground.   Kamar Aiken (5-77 on 7 targets) is the Baltimore #1 right now, they traded for Chris Givens from the Rams.

M Bryant returns for the Steelers, drop Wheaton, (1-18 on 1 target).

Javorius Allen gets a lot of touches with poor production, which means he practices hard and makes no assignment mistakes.   Keep watching this rookie, he is a Forsett injury away form being a top 20 RB.  5-19 on the ground.

Andre Johnson is a drop . . . . yes a drop . . . .aghh.

Hurns and Robinson were targeted a combined 27 times, despite the low profile team and market they should be 100% rostered.

Rueben Randle, WR, NYG, will only get better as Cruz watches his season slip away.  He only had 3-31 on 6 targets, so if an owner overreacts and he gets dropped, scoop him up.

Karlos Williams, RB Buff, will start for 2 more week sin place of McCoy.  He should be 100% rostered.  3-30 and a TD in the air , 18-40 on the ground.

Andre Williams will eventually take over for Jennings as the NYG # 1 back.  11-35, a nice #19 or 20 on your team for $5

Ted Ginn Jr., just kidding, 2 TD’s , that’s it , no more Ted, I can’t take it.

Charles Simms, TBB, RB, watch only at this point.

Cameron Artis – Payne, RB, Panthers, watch, he is next in line and it won’t take long.  8-25

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philly, if over reacting GM’s dropped him he is a 20% target.   He will have a high floor rest of season.

Chris Thompson, RB, Wash, will hurt Matt Jones touch count.   Thompson was on fire last week. 6-53 on the ground and 2-24 in the air.

Darren Sproles, no not waive, be patient,

Roy Helu played for the first time this year for Oakland. 2-13 on the ground.  A watch player.

Darren McFadden, if out there is now worth it, Dunbar’s ACL will place McFadden into the 3rd down, pass catching back role.

Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas, also gets an uptick due to Dunbar.  Also newly acquired Brice Butler went down with a hammy, also good for Cole.  5%

Willie Snead is Drew’s guy, 15%.  6-89 on 6 targets.  He is clearly the guy Drew looks for.    Look for him to have better and better numbers the rest of the way.

David Johnson, RB, Arizona.  If you have room a great #20.  He has flashed big play ability and can get the tough yards.  Needs veteran CJ Johnson and oft injured Ellington to get nicked up again.  A high powered offense, try to find room for him on your roster.  3-18 on the ground, 4-63 in the air and a TD.  However he dropped a TD pass and had a fumble.

If anyone quit on Cardinal John Brown, WR, pick him up.  7-75 on 10 targets .. . . . welcome back where the hell have you been.

Ronnie Hillman, clearly the #1 guy this week on waivers.   Look for Ronnie to be the #1 back until he gets hurt. He is finding space and reading the holes much better than CJ Anderson.  11-103 on the ground with a TD.

Richard Rogers, a great TE 2, should get his share of TD’ s rest of season.  A great matchup play. 5-45 and a TD.

Antonio Gates back, making Ladarius Green’s value pretty marginal.

 

 

 

October 6th, 2015

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Ready to jump in, or try to improve your rate of return . . .

Essentially, you will need to elect to play in large tournaments with big payoffs and many participants or in head to head or divisional contest with 2-10 players.

I like to run wild and do several head to head contest with 2 or 3 different roster variations and then also enter a few large tournaments to take a roll at the big bucks.

There are several variations on participating available to fit your needs.   You can play in just 1pm games , perfect when you are hanging out with friends to watch the early games at a venue.  One of my favorites is to enter into a Sunday Night Monday Night league.  This is where the available pool of players only comes from the Sun and Mon night games.   Naturally here, a lot of folks will have the same players, so the trick is to make sure you go for two players who are under the radar.  Additionally, your entry fee can go anywhere from $1 up to $1,000 depending on your taste for risk.   You will be able to see how many entries are allowed in the contest you want to enter.  If you only want to try and beat 1, 100, 1000 entries, you can find a league to enter.     The earlier you enter in a week the more league choice you have as they do fill up. This is a solid move as it is easy to swap out players later.    Reserve your spot early, then tweek lineup as needed.

A lot is out there about poker players entering in contest 100’s of times, mathematicians using algorithms and wizards working charms to take all the prize pool.   All you need to know about that is,  in week 2, the owner who  started the Browns DST, Travis Benjamin at WR,  and Matt Jones at RB posted the high score.  None of those people would have picked that roster.

Basic – each player has an assigned salary value and you have x amount of money to complete a full lineup.  Usually a $60,000 salary cap.

Tatcics:

1) If you are new to sign up make sure you get a promo code first.  Every major has bonus codes that are real and will usually match your initial deposits. They will at least track your deposits until you reach a value at which point they pay out a bonus

2) Start small, play a few $1 or $2 entries and do some head to head.   Observe the rosters from team who win

3) In head to head, best strategy is usually to just build a solid balanced team with high floor guys at every position

4) In large tournaments take 1-2 swings.  Get a guy who you believe will have the potential for a bust out game. Additionally, in tournaments, stacking players for a specific matchup is a common approach.  Stacking is when you like the matchup for the Falcons going against the Steelers.  You see this as a wide open gunslinger game with a lot of points.   Stacking would be getting Julio Jones and Matt Ryan on your team.  Stacking is not looking at the Packers playing the Texans and believing the matchup is so lopsided that the packers will win by 20.  In that case caution, in this type of game the dominate team often takes the foot off the gas in the second half and point production slow down.    Last note here, a peek at the Vegas over under will give you a another opinion about how many points will be scored in the game

5)  Listen to the Fantasy Tactics Podcast on Sundays, “Zero Hour”  geared 100% for the daily game.  Shameless Self Promotion – better subscribe, download and rate it on ITunes.

6)   Don’t tweek, fuss and adjust your roster until you spend all salary cap.  Build the best team that is under the cap.   If you end up with $4500 not spent, don’t go back and try to find a way to spend all cap.

7) Have fun, stay in moderation, don’t get discouraged with a few bad weeks.

 

September 26th, 2015

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Houston –  Carolina

Alfred Blue and the Texan running game are non factors until Foster returns.    Do not waste any $ on Chris Polk or Alfred Blue.

Ryan Mallett could become an interesting QB 2 once Foster returns – – he is showing some gun slinging capability.

Corey (Philly) Brown continues to get targets – nailed 3-57 and a TD on 4 targets. – – -watch and grab if you have holes.

Nate Washington, WR, Houston – under the radar player that many owners pass on in various formats.  Nate drilled 3-63 on * yes 8 targets.

Cecil Shorts drew 12 targets in same game – 6-34.  I would spend 5% – 8% on Nate if in need.

Niners – Steelers

DeAngelo’s ride almost over . . . will now become a nice change of pace back.  If a quick to draw owner drops him I would pick him up.  He has demonstrated he can run and catch on this team.  Bell, as with many players will be prone to an injury setback as he returns to the team .

If owners drop Heath Miller, a nice pick up.  He should be a a decent high floor TE2 rest of the way .

Mike Davis is Hyde’s clear backup, keep him on your watch list.

Bucs – Saints

Brees shoulder a concern . . . QB’s and shoulders are as bad as WR and feet.  Khiry Robinson looks appealing,  5-48   and 1-9 in the air, but as Spillar gets healthy he will chew into Robinson’s time.

I like Brandon Coleman to bounce back, he is very close to the WR2 on this team and Drew’s only big target . . . we are just waiting for the inevitable Colston injury. Pick him up, nice match up this week. 3-33 on 6 targets

Charles Sims got a lot of looks, 8-38 and 3-14 in the air , a watch player.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, don’t bail.  He is a fixture for Winston

Josh Hill, TE, NO, the off season favorite sleeper for many had 4 targets.  Watch

 

Cardinals – Bears

As predicted , by week 4, Jimmy Clausen will have more snaps than Cutler.  David Johnson, RB, Arizona.  Depending on your format, if he is free , 60% of your budget if you need RB3.  The real deal and a great swing for it player.  Playing behind a retread Chris Johnson and waiting for oft injured Ellington to play.

John Brown, WR, Cards, should be rostered, disappointing to date, don;t give up.

Falcons – Giants

Andre Williams, had 5-43, watch, is likely going to take over for Jennings at some point.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Atl, at least I can brag here.  Repeatedly talked about on show.   He is in a perfect spot.  If you are WR needy he is a legit WR3 on the team and very close to taking Roddy’s role when he goes down.  6-77-1 TD, on 11 targets and had a TD called down at the 1 yard line.

Larry Donnell, TE, NYG, may see more of after a bad 0-2 start for the Giants.  4-28- 1 TD

Chargers – Bengals

If Marvin Jones is not on a roster in your format he is a great WR5 to have on your bench for bye week support. 2-48 – 1 TD – 5 targets.

Danny Woodhead should be long gone, but in the event he is on waivers he is a fixture of this team’s passing attack and is notable in the red zone packages.

Ladarius Green, 5-47, possible earning a full time role even when Gates returns,

Cowboys – Eagles

Brandon Weeden . . . no

Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas, may see an increased role as the Cowboys will try to run more without Romo.

Darren Sproles, RB, Philly, rough game but a fixture, if on waivers pluck him.  4-23 on 4 targets is his floor

Terrance Williams – uptick form the Dez injury, downtick from the Cassell trade.  4-84 on 7 targets

Agholar, WR , Philly, will come on – 3-31 and was wide open for a TD and missed

 

Titans – Browns

Mariota – he is saying I am a QB2 – hmm  21-37-257-2-0

McCluster showing what many thought he would be for the Titans – 10-98  and 4-26  – his electric addition to this offense might stick if Marcus likes him as a emergency outlet.

Duke Johnson, RB, Browns, a lot of touches,  12-43, get him on your team he will see more and more carries.

Lions – Vikings

Charles Johnson, WR, disappointing game with 3-10 on 3 targets.  Still a keeper and will catch fire at some point.   I also like that eventually Rudolph will go down, which will net him more targets.  If available inn your format grab him.

Theo Riddick, RB, Lions, given Bell’s injury history and a rookie running as a one, Theo is a very sneaky 20th man, watch player.  Had 5-41 in the air on 6 targets.

Broncos – Chiefs

Ronnie Hillman is entrenched and running great.  If free in your format his is my 2nd top waiver add this week.   He will get touches every week irregardless of CJ Anderson.  9-34 was not inspiring but yuo got a bad game out of the way .

John O’ Shaunasy, TE, KC, watch, plenty of talent and Kelce has a bad injury history.   Alex Smith will be looking at the TE more often in the future.

Patriots – Bills

Aaron Dobson for the first time in 2 year is not on a single team I own.  Why is that important . . . we all know . . . because now he will do something!  7-87, but keep in mind Brady was unglued and on fire.  Still, if you are deep at WR he is a nice stab for a 2oth man.  At least a close watch given Amendola’s and Gronk’s injury history.

Karlos Williams , RB, Bill, 6-21-1 and 2-16.  Will get a decent share of the touches every week, and when McCoy goes down he will be the #1.  Excellent end of year boom player.

Scott Chandler, TE, NE – 3-23 on 5 targets.  A nice high floor TE 2/3.  I expect at least 1 red zone target every week.

 

September 22nd, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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CalvinJ

Ok, I am a Fantasy Football junkie and snob.  Over the last 3 years I have dabbled in the Daily game enough to be familiar with it and answer questions intelligently.  Change is constant . . . . that is a constant.  I have entered 2015 aggressively into the Daily game and have enjoyed the first few weeks tremendously.   What I like about it is the ability to pull my Non-Fantasy Football nerd friends into fantasy.

Friends who would not spend the time to manage even a free Yahoo team, will put a roster in with you before kickoff on Sunday and join the Fantasy fun.

Even if you have remained on the sideline, I encourage you to dabble, play a few lottery tickets.  In the spirit of disclosure I will warn you, you are playing against 10’s and 10’s of thousands . . . so in the big payoff leagues your odds are long. . . .  but at a single $ . . . . that’s my type of lottery.

There are other formats besides the big payoff leagues.   Tournaments, leagues where only a certain percentage of the entries win.  Usually from 10 to 25% or so are winners.    These can include rather large prize pools.  These are the large payoff leagues that are hyped most often . . . ya know, I spent 5$ and won $15,000 type leagues in the advertisements.

50/50 contest are just that.  You have a 50% chance of winning.  Usually a head to head contest.  Wager a single $ and win $1.80   You can wager a single dollar or up the ante all you want.  I play in this area a lot.

There are 1:00 pm game only contest – – create a lineup in a league where everyone can only use players from the 1:00 pm game.  YThis is great if you are at an establishment or home with friends all watching the 1:00 pm game.

A few strategies:

Stacking:  This is when you believe in a game where the offense is going to lite it up.  You like the Rogers , match up vs the Falcon defense.  You are on board for a shoot out between these two offenses,  so you grab Rogers and stack him with Cobb and James Jones.    This is a good strategy in tournaments where you need to post massive points to bring home the bacon.   Watch out for Stacking plays that tempt you for bad matchups.  Example – Andrew Luck is facing the hapless Bucs. A lot of folks like the idea of playing Luck with Hilton and Allen  – keep in mind, it is likely that by the middle of the 3rd quarter the Colts will be in cruise control and take the foot off the gas pedal . . . and hence a lot of running.   Always better to stack when 2 great offenses are going head to head and they both have marginal offenses.

Balanced:  This is where you set an even lineup of solid players across the board at all positions.    Spending about an average of $6,500 per RB, WR, $9,000 at QB and about $5,000 at DST and K.  Best use for this strategy is in small pool 50/50 contest.  This is a good fit for Fantasy Players – -let your skills shine when you pick the better set of  3 of the $6500 WR than your competition.  Be patient, if you really like a balanced team you put together , enter it in  10 x in 50-50 contest – – a great way to minimize risk and get your feet wet.

Cheap QB:  Start building your lineup by setting the highest upside QB you like with the lowest salary.  This set the sage for you to go strong at RB and WR and balanced at TE, DST and K.    This is a good strategy to adopt when you see a great match up on the schedule for a low value QB, and believe you can exploit it over a large percentage of your competitors.

Every Sunday, Chris and I host the zero hour Fantasy Daily Game Radio Show.  Tune in . . . download it on ITunes

Good Luck

September 20th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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geno-smith-west-virginia

It wasn’t many years ago when every serious fantasy player was turned on to the 3rd year WR break out trend.  However, over the last 4 years or so, rookies have come into the NFL and been very fantasy relevant from week 1 and certainly in years 1 and 2.    This rookie trend has kept the hype on potential 3rd year breakout candidates down to a low murmur.  Hence an opportunity.

A look at the candidates and it should provide some nice insights into value selections that will outperform ADP

Keenan Allen, on prolific passing offense, nice,  can be a WR1 on your team.   Charles Johnson, will be Teddy’s main squeeze.   Marques Wheaton my never give up the #2 spot.   Aaron Dobson . . hmm – what could be. Marquess Wilson may be held back to Cutler’s passing game but a close watch is warranted. DeAndre Hopkins is well ,loved and drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round . . . not going to outperform that ADP, he is a pass.   Robert Woods is one solid WR, stuck on a team that won’t wow yoou passing this year . . . but in dynasty keeper leagues he is a nice addition.   Terrance Williams finds himself as the primary benefactor to playing opposite one the leagues best in Dez Bryant.   Lastly, can Tavon Austin be a tease one more year . . . I would not bet on that offense making hi fantasy relevant.  In 2 years  with a short accurate passing QB . . . could be lights out.

Player Team Age Height Weight 2013 Rec 2014 Rec
Keenan Allen SD 23 6’2 206 71 77
Charles Johnson MIN 26 6’2 215 0 31
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 23 6’1 214 58 76
Markus Wheaton PIT 24 5’11 182 6 53
Aaron Dobson NE 24 6’3 203 37 3
Marquess Wilson CHI 22 6’4 184 2 17
Robert Woods BUF 23 6’0 190 40 65
Terrance Williams DAL 25 6’2 208 44 37
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 24 6’2 216 45 33
Kenny Stills MIA 23 6’0 194 32 63
Justin Hunter TEN 24 6’4 202 18 28
Tavon Austin STL 24 5’8 174 40 32
Stedman Bailey STL 24 5’10 193 17 30

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: 2015 Draft, 2015 Draft Rankings, Dynasty, NFL Fantasy Football

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week12gronhern
Rank Last First Team
1 Gronkowski Rob NE
2 Graham Jimmy SEA
3 Kelce Travis KC
4 Olsen Greg CAR
5 Bennett Martellus CHI
6 Cameron Jordan MIA
7 Ertz Zach PHI
8 Walker Delanie TEN
9 Thomas Julius JAX
10 Witten Jason DAL
11 Rudolph Kyle MIN
12 Miller Heath PIT
13 Eifert Tyler CIN
14 Fleener Coby IND
15 Gates Antonio SD
16 Hill Josh NO
17 Clay Charles BUF
18 Ebron Eric DET
19 Reed Jordan WAS
20 Green Ladarius SD
21 Williams Maxx BAL
22 Rodgers Richard GB
23 Davis Vernon SF
24 Cook Jared STL
25 Daniels Owen DEN
26 Seferian-Jenkins Austin TB
27 Donnell Larry NYG
28 Allen Dwayne IND
29 Housler Rob CLE
30 Walford Clive OAK
31 Tamme Jacob ATL
32 Rivera Mychal OAK
33 Paul Niles WAS
34 Fiedorowicz C.J. HOU
35 Graham Garrett HOU
36 Green Virgil DEN
37 Escobar Gavin DAL
38 Celek Brent PHI
38 Chandler Scott NE
39 Watson Ben NO
40 Niklas Troy ARI
41 Kendricks Lance STL
42 Quarless Andrew GB
43 Sims Dion MIA
45 Toilolo Levine ATL
46 Lewis Marcedes JAX
47 Wright Timothy TBB
48 Willson Luke SEA
49 Ford Chase MIN
50 Cumberland Jeff NYJ
51 Myers Brandon TB
52 Moeaki Tony ATL
53 Pitta Dennis BAL
54 Amaro Jace NYJ

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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rr9
Rank Last First Team
1 Brown Antonio PIT
2 Bryant Dez DAL
3 Beckham Odell NYG
4 Jones Julio ATL
5 Cobb Randall GB
6 Thomas Demaryius DEN
7 Johnson Calvin DET
8 Green A.J. CIN
9 Evans Mike TB
10 Jeffery Alshon CHI
11 Cooks Brandin NO
12 Matthews Jordan PHI
13 Hilton T.Y. IND
14 Adams Davante GB
15 Sanders Emmanuel DEN
16 Tate Golden DET
17 Cooper Amari OAK
18 Johnson Andre IND
19 Landry Jarvis MIA
20 Allen Keenan SD
21 Hopkins DeAndre HOU
22 Marshall Brandon NYJ
23 Johnson Charles MIN
24 Jackson DeSean WAS
25 Maclin Jeremy KC
26 Wallace Mike MIN
27 LaFell Brandon NE
28 Jackson Vincent TB
29 Watkins Sammy BUF
30 Edelman Julian NE
31 Fitzgerald Larry ARI
32 Johnson Steve SD
33 Brown John ARI
34 White Roddy ATL
35 Bryant Martavis PIT
36 Smith Torrey SF
37 Crabtree Michael OAK
38 Floyd Michael ARI
39 Cruz Victor NYG
40 Decker Eric NYJ
41 Garcon Pierre WAS
42 Boldin Anquan SF
43 Stills Kenny MIA
44 Smith Steve BAL
45 Agholor Nelson PHI
46 Robinson Allen JAX
47 Wright Kendall TEN
48 Colston Marques NO
49 Parker DeVante MIA
50 Harvin Percy BUF
51 Latimer Cody DEN
52 Perriman Breshad BAL
53 Williams Terrance DAL
54 Randle Rueben NYG
55 Green-Beckham Dorial TEN
56 Britt Kenny STL
57 Baldwin Doug SEA
58 Bowe Dwayne CLE
59 Funchess Devin CAR
60 Quick Brian STL
61 Jones Marvin CIN
62 Floyd Malcom SD
63 Moncrief Donte IND
64 Hunter Justin TEN
65 Patterson Cordarrelle MIN
66 Huff Josh PHI
67 Strong Jaelen HOU
68 Kearse Jermaine SEA
69 Lee Marqise JAX
70 Nelson Jordy GB
71 Benjamin Kelvin CAR
72 White Kevin CHI

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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Lynch-White_nohelmet--nfl_mezz_1280_1024

1 Charles Jamaal KC
2 Peterson Adrian MIN
3 Bell LeVeon PIT
4 Lacy Eddie GB
5 Anderson C.J. DEN
6 Lynch Marshawn SEA
7 Hill Jeremy CIN
8 Miller Lamar MIA
9 Ingram Mark NO
10 Murray Latavius OAK
11 Forte Matt CHI
12 Murray DeMarco PHI
13 Randle Joseph DAL
14 Morris Alfred WAS
15 Forsett Justin BAL
16 Abdullah Ameer DET
17 Hyde Carlos SF
18 Foster Arian HOU
19 Gore Frank IND
20 McCoy LeSean BUF
21 Martin Doug TB
22 Ellington Andre ARI
23 Stewart Jonathan CAR
24 Crowell Isaiah CLE
25 Spiller C.J. NO
26 Gordon Melvin SD
27 Bernard Giovani CIN
28 Yeldon T.J. JAX
29 Vereen Shane NYG
30 Gurley Todd STL
31 Ivory Chris NYJ
32 Bell Joique DET
33 Blount LeGarrette NE
34 Coleman Tevin ATL
35 Jennings Rashad NYG
36 Sproles Darren PHI
37 Johnson Duke CLE
38 Freeman Devonta ATL
39 Mathews Ryan PHI
39 Mason Tre STL
40 Williams Andre NYG
41 Sankey Bishop TEN
42 Sims Charles TB
44 McFadden Darren DAL
45 Robinson Denard JAX
46 Helu Roy OAK
47 Cadet Travaris NE
48 Johnson David ARI
49 McKinnon Jerick MIN
50 Allen Javorius BAL
51 Jackson Fred SEA
52 Bush Reggie SF
53 Williams DeAngelo PIT
54 Robinson Khiry NO
55 Michael Christine DAL
55 Davis Knile KC
56 Ball Montee DEN
57 Ridley Stevan NYJ
59 Cobb David TEN
60 Woodhead Danny SD
61 White James NE
62 Carey KaDeem CHI
64 West Terrance CLE
65 Stacy Zac NYJ
66 Riddick Theo DET
67 Turbin Robert SEA
68 Starks James GB
69 Ajayi Jay MIA

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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Bortles looks like Luck - plays like Locker

1 Luck Andrew IND
2 Rodgers Aaron GB
3 Roethlisberger Ben PIT
4 Ryan Matt ATL
5 Manning Peyton DEN
6 Brees Drew NO
7 Wilson Russell SEA
8 Brady Tom NE
9 Newton Cam CAR
10 Manning Eli NYG
11 Tannehill Ryan MIA
12 Stafford Matthew DET
13 Romo Tony DAL
14 Rivers Philip SD
15 Bradford Sam PHI
16 Flacco Joe BAL
17 Bridgewater Teddy MIN
18 Kaepernick Colin SF
19 Palmer Carson ARI
20 Dalton Andy CIN
21 Carr Derek OAK
22 Cutler Jay CHI
23 Foles Nick STL
24 Smith Alex KC
25 Bortles Blake JAX
26 Cousins Kirk WAS
27 Mariota Marcus TEN
28 Winston Jameis TB
29 Smith Geno NYJ
30 Mallett Ryan HOU
31 Hoyer Brian HOU
32 Sanchez Mark PHI
33 Cassel Matt BUF
34 McCown Josh CLE
35 Fitzpatrick Ryan NYJ
36 Osweiler Brock DEN
37 Manuel EJ BUF
38 Garoppolo Jimmy NE
39 Griffin Robert WAS
40 Mettenberger Zach TEN
41 Manziel Johnny CLE

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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the-nfl-cannot-be-about-hard-hitting-anymore

The PUP IMPACT!!

Bloody Saturday frequently steals all the headlines, as owners look for the impact from the cut down to 53 man rosters. The PUP, (Physically Unable to Perform) list is a holder of many impact changes.
Essentially, these guys are out for 6 weeks – at a min – – the impact is of course is not just to themselves but, potential bumps to the player who will replace them or to a do a different complimentary player on the roster.
IDP’ers – – Bengal MLB Vontaze Burfict will start the year on the PUP. The dreaded microfracture surgery performed in January is slow on the mend.

Bears WR, Kevin White, the replacement for Brandon Marshall won’t make it on the field to week 7 . . if that. Keep an eye on his health – place a waiver claim in week 4 or 5 and see what happens. Eddie Royal is the player who has vaulted up draft boards as a result. Eddie is entrenched in rounds 9-14 in various formats. He had some 70 catch season with the Chargers and should find similar production opposite Jeffrey.

Jets RB.Stevan Ridley, rehabbing a torn ACL. Not much fantasy value to start with, but the news further entrenches Chris Ivory as a value pick. Ivory is almost all the Jets have, he should represent a high consistent floor but a low ceiling. He is a favorite of Zero RB drafters.

Patriots WR, Brandon Lafell, he was still getting picked up in rounds 13,14 . . . . wow. Aaron Dobson may become fantasy relevant. The kid just needs a big game to get his own confidence and Brady’s rolling. Note – LaFell’s injury is a foot injury, not a good injury for a WR to recover from. Add in Reggie Wayne’s release, Danny Amendola and Jalen Saunders need to get long looks on your boards. Note , one time prospect Brian Tyms was also waived earlier and Brandon Gibson went as well, injured. The Wayne signing makes sense when you see the blood at WR this summer for the Pats. What does this all mean? Amendola, Edelman, Gronk and ???? Dobson are the guys!

Silas Reed, Redskin 3rd down back was well liked by coaching, went IR – -they Skins did not pick up a player to replace . . . hence the rookie Matt Jones love. Clear field in front of the rookie Jones, who is moving up boards every week. The injuries to Paulson and Paul and TE also make the pass catching rookie likely to see more snaps than earlier predicted.

Paul Richardson, Seattle, WR, not a fantasy noteworthy player, but does keep more balls heading undervalued Graham’s way. Wilson will look to get the Seahawks money’s worth and target Jimmy as often as he can, the lack of cominate pass catching wideouts only helps Jimmy more.

Dolphin Rookie RB, Jay Ajayi has also been placed on IR for a broken rib.   Already an injury risk , Damien Williams now becomes a clear cut #2 with value behind Lamar Miller.

David Cobb, the rookie Titan many fell in love with is already on PUP with a calf.  Sankey now is the #1 pure and simple.   On the heels of that . . . Terrance West was traded from the Browns to the Titans for a 7th round.    A very interesting move . . . what it means . . . . go with Crowell  . . . . enough already of Duke Johnson.

Raven TE, Dennis Pitta, grab Maxx Williams , don’t wait to long . . . Pitta is a non threat. Williams will go undrafted in may formats, he could however be a decided advantage down the stretch. NFL bloodlines always pay off.

If you drafted Jonas Gray and are ready to hit the dump button I advise patience. Several RB thin teams could be interested in a flyer on the Patriots cast off. Gray showed some skills and managed to stay on the dressed roster “most” of last year for one of the league’s most demanding coaches. I suggest you wait at least 1 week to see if he lands on his feet. The Colts are a team that make a lot of sense, the Colt would get some valuable recon and help in prep for this year’s match, plus get an upgrade over injured Boom Heron, and flyer sleeper Josh Robinson. The Ravens are terrible thin behind Forsett, my rookie sleeper Buck Allen has showed little I pre-season and Taliaferrro is out with a knee injury.

Another reason to hold on, both of these teams are high output offenses and Gray could carve out a niche role in addition to serving as a primary handcuff.

Other teams that may window shop, the Falcons, Raiders, Steelers, and Panthers. The Falcons and Steelers being the teams you naturally want a piece of . This situation serves to remind us all . . . . speed on cuts is not always the best move. Determine if the player has value to others before a final cast off.
If you missed Saturday’s hot stove you missed our reminder in regard to the foot doctor. We originally talked about this back in July. Charles Johnson, WR , Vikings went to see him upon arrangement with OC Norv Turner. The likelihood Johnson becomes Bridgewater’s’ main target is extremely high.

September 6th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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th

Cincinnati Main Events are in the Book
The KFFSC kicked off the live Main Event Draft Season on August 25th. In a draft highlighted by the arrival of industry aces like Jason Conn, the Cox team and more.

The third year for the growing event Commissioner Ferrell Elliot plans to expand the venue as more participants learn about the event. The South Carolina kids drove out to draft live and scored a great draft. Jarrett and Michael arrived in time to watch the first draft which allowed them to adjust strategy for the draft they were in at 4:00 pm.

Great plan, they discussed with prior to the draft where they wanted to picking from and the players they hyped to get. Beckham, Cobb and K Allen went 1,2,3 to them In round 4 they went after xxx xxxxxx, RB, xxxxx. A sleeper for them, a riser on most boards. Taking xxxxx xxxxx! in round 5 is a steal to me . A player who running behind that OL could be a top 5 RB this year. IN the 5th !!!

IF you have not joined a KFFSC draft the draft starts with a bang. As they auction off draft position. The dollars spent to buy your draft position count against your waiver wire budget. In Cincy we saw the coveted 11,12 spot go for big dollars again. . . . . $330 for the 12 spot. In a third round reversal format the player at the 12 spot is essentially getting 3 of the top 25 players.

This coming weekend, August 28-30, the KFFSC will kickoff the regalia at the Horseshoe in Louisville. Hundreds of participants and guest will descend on Casino, participants and guest. Belky and Gerzak from the FFPC’s High Stakes Fantasy Football Hour will be their broadcasting live on Friday night right on location.

Josh Huff WR is the fastest ascending player on the board, you will have to massively adjust your draft plan to get him on your team . Tune into the KFFSC AllPurposeRoto Fantasy Hour on Tuesday night at 8:00 pm for all the details and reveals.

The Jordy Nelson injury shows just how fickle the game can be . Devonta Adams went in the 8th, 9th and 9th. WE will see this weekend how far up boards he will move. Devin Funchess, in response to the Benjamin injury went in the 6,7, and 9th.

What is our response to the Nelson injury, its drafting Lacey if he falls to us in round 1. His role in the offense will grow. Cobb, now will get the lock down corner every game and may have games of great disappointment. I like the Olson move up as a reaction to the Benjamin injury as I target xxxx in Round 6 or 5.

A note here, insider info, the South Carolina boys steered me hard away from Cobb and are on the Sankey bandwagon. What a great story that could be. We will be drafting all day Saturday and Sunday, call or join us. If you are in driving distance, come check it out and scout it for next year. Nice Casino, exercise room , walking path for the wife / girlfriend and major shopping outlets a short drive away.

August 24th, 2015

Posted In: NFL Fantasy Football

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