UPDATED 7/6/12 – With the hype train 100% behind Lloyd & Hernandez I figured now would be a good time to re-post this.
Brandon Lloyd’ s signing with the Patriots has been speculated on since the beginning of this season. When he officially signed with the team, his ascent of draft boards began. The question is though, why are we excited? Lloyd’s current average draft position puts him in the 6th round range, which for most is a WR 2/3.
So let’s take a look at the ideal Patriot’s offense. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez will all be productive in a system that they all know and have been successful in. With this in mind just how valuable is the 4rth option in a good offense for fantasy owners? Let’s take a look at how the 4rth best receiving option has done in some recent prolific NFL offenses.
So under normal circumstances, we’d expect the fourth best receiver on a prolific offense to average 45 catches for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the recent best case scenario for this situation being 52 catches for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns.
So, is this production worthy of a 6th round pick in your re-draft leagues? Would you rather have this sort of production over DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker among others?
Before you accuse me of badmouthing him I think what Lloyd brings to the Patriots offense is fantastic in a non fantasy related sense. He’ll really help the running game along with Welker, Gronkowski & Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be a sought after fantasy pick.
Now if you are a firm Lloyd believer, then who is going to fall off? Is Tom Brady really going to totally abandon his safety blanket Wes Welker? Will Rob Gronkowski shrink 6 inches and stop catching TDs? The most viable argument would be that Hernandez & Lloyd will each cut into each other, crushing both of their respective values.
At this juncture you could be playing the fantasy football equivalent of Russian Roulette with receivers not named Rob Gronkowski on the Patriots. Be careful out there.
Chris July 6th, 2012
Here are some upated observations at the halfway mark of the 2011 NFL season,
The recent facial expressions from the sidelines has forced more than a few Colt fans to wonder, maybe we should make a run for Andrew Luck. We have seen LB Brackett and FS Bullitt head to IR already, and now Foster looks bad, the Colts should switch gears to strategy for 2012, they have to be honest, even with Manning back in 7 weeks it won’t matter. Play the youngsters and tool up. Delone Carter will get his shot no matter how well Addai plays. Kerry Collins was placed on IR ( about 2 years to late) and a parade of washed out young QB’s brought in for Manning to work out and select for future #2 status.
The Steelers are not the team they used to be by a long shot. Mendenhall continues to scare me, and I like Mr. Redman more and more every week.
While the Dolphin ownership is trying to say the right thing now about their head coach, it’s about 12 months to late. Tony is a figure head that just wants his guys to smile in case you missed his interview. He does not appear to want to win, just his guys to smile. I am still smarting over that quote as a Dolphin fan. The fish are drafting in the top 3 for sure.
The Eagles and their fans are quickly learning what every Yankee fan already knows. If you go out and buy great talent, they still have to be coached well enough to win and work together as a team. I am not saying Andy Reid is a bad coach, I am just saying that when you bring in big dollar guys it needs a style of coaching to get them to play together. It can be done and the Yankees have done it, but you need chemistry. P.S. Philly – – look at how miserable Dallas is with same approach.
Kansas City players represent some great buy low opportunities. I expect the team to still fall behind in most second halves leading to some great garbage time production for Dwayne Bowe, perhaps even Mr. Cassell is you are in a pinch.
Rex Ryan and his Jets look bad but I love the post game interviews and the new Insane Joe Namath who thinks he is the Godfather of the Jets.
Patriots RB Steven Ridley should be on every team. Dynasty leagues with decent keeper roster limits get him if you can. Bill won’t invest in another RB in next year’s draft based on how his defense is playing. It might be an up and down year for him but betting men believe he is the new Pats bell cow.
Reggie Wayne was right, the Colts look a lot better with Curtis Painter at QB. If he can play similar to how he performed against the Buc’s, at least Wayne, Garcon, Adai and Clark have some fantasy relevance. That;s a true statement in the Twilight Zone. In the NFL it’s abandon ship.
It appears everyone is firmly on the Buffalo bandwagon, the only caution here is that come your playoffs the Bill will be outside, in the cold, poor weather and turning more to their running game. Personally, I am selling high after the next big game.
If you are not sure about the Patriots, they are doing this with a poor defense. As we get to week 12, I assure you this defense will be playing a lot better.
Andy Dalton is showing what heart can do. The only issue is it is still the same Bengal organization that messed up Ocho Cinco, Carson Palmer, Corey Dillon and let Justin Smith go just to name a few issues. One more note, my favorite stats – over the last 22 games in which the Bengals gave up 21 or more point they are 1 and 21. I love AJ Green love him, but in dynasty leagues I am not betting on him being there every week for me over several years. If he strings 2 more great games together back to back go ask for the farm to someone who is googoo for gaga on him.
Kendall Hunter is well worth a roster spot and value. He will get the chance to be the man next year. The Niners will not be able to ignore needs on draft day at WR and OL, DL.
DeMarco Murray the same in Dallas, not because of Felix’s age or production, but because of his health, I stand by my claim he won’t stay on the field for 13 games. I look like a fortune teller thanks to Felix’s predictability.
Everyone has forgotten about Ryan Williams, his injury and Beanie. If you can stash Ryan, and have room, go for it for next year. He might be 18 months away but he is a gem at zero value now. (Speaking of course for taxi squad or IR spots)
Daniel Thomas, wait and watch for 2 or 3 dud games and make a swing for him. He might have a good finish if he can stay on the field but his future looks solid and likely will be a RB 1 in a year or two. The Dolphins have so many holes he will get lots of chances over the next 2 years. Steve Slaton a perfect complement to him and say see ya to Reggie Bush.
Randall Cobb, the playmaker from Green Bay is in perfect position for a trade – go for him. Lots of chatter and players in front of him but ponder this. Green Bay WR’s have a reputation of getting nicked up all to often and Donald Driver is on marked time, It is not hard to imagine a Finley injury and a Nelson or Jennings injury and Cobb is easy the #2 or #3 guy for the best QB in football.
Titus Young, please pay attention. Get him, he is already past Nate the man a team and fan favorite but has way to much talent to miss snaps. He will get on the field a lot more over the next 12 weeks and help free up lanes for CJ and Pettigrew underneath.
Greg Salas, the rookie WR in Saint Louis is who the team would like to develop that special bond with Bradford but for now he needs some superglue bond to hold onto passes. Like fellow rookie Kendricks he has dropped to many and I believe Bradford has lost trust. Sam has real issues up front with his OL and can’t waste throws to guys that drop them . Enter D Alexander and Mark Clayton due back soon. Clayton will get a long look once back to be the main man. If he can stay healthy I am freakazoid over Bradford and his schedule the last 6 weeks. Hence Clayton could become the waiver wire pick up of the year. In dynasty leagues, next year Bradford with Lloyd, Clayton, Salas, Kendricks . . . . yikes!
Hats off to Chris – high on Sproles when he went to Saints months ago. Darren is # 9 in the league with 66 targets and amongst the top 40 most targeted players he has caught a league leading 77% of them! You can do a lot worse if you are struggling at RB to swing big for him. Need more, Darren is tied at #2 in the league for most targets inside the opponents 20.
Speaking of Big Ben, move him in a heartbeat should an offer come after 2 good games – that OL is as bad at pass protection as the Jets are.
Keiland Williams, RB Detroit. Don’t say I didn’t mention him.
Kevin Kolb is getting crushed for poor production cause its has been poor. However, it’s a new team, a new offense and his first extensive playing time. I think a great opportunity to get him at a bargain. Come fantasy playoffs, he faces SF in Arizona, the Browns then the Bengals. I am not saying those are all weak defenses but games and pass defenses that the Cards will go after and should be more than competitive at.
Last – Greg Little, will be a lousy year but in that offense with that coaching and McCoy he might be the #2 wr in this years draft for stats come 2-3 years down the road.
Questions, looking for advice on how to position your team to make a comeback next year in your dynasty leagues, drop Chris and I a note and we would be heppy to respond.
Bob October 4th, 2011
Posted In: Standard
Well at least Jamaal Charles won’t be holding us hostage this year. Every year there is always a highly drafted player that owners cannot take out of their lineup because of who they are, where they were drafted and the lingering feeling that a big week is on the horizon.
There’s no doubt that Charles would’ve put up solid numbers, but with the putrid output by the Chiefs since Charlie Weis announced he was leaving to be the Offensive Coordinator at the University of Florida, there’s a slim chance that he would have lived up to his top 5 draft status.
Since Weis announced his departure (just before week 17 of last season) the team has been outscored 150-27. Their passing statistics paint a grim scene, 59-113 (52.21%) for 464 yards (4.106 yards per attempt) with 1 TD and 9 INTs. On the other hand the team has run for 482 yards on 95 attempts (5.07 yards per attempt) with 2 TDs, so they’ve been more effective in that phase.
Dynasty-wise Charles owners should be happy after this season. If Todd Haley isn’t with the team in 2012 it would certainly mean more touches for Charles which was a constant complaint last year. Also having a high pick in every round will further fortify a team that does have talent on the roster which will benefit Charles.
As far as replacing your first round pick rather than Thomas Jones I’m going after Dexter McCluster. Looking outside the Chiefs, if someone panicked with Willis McGahee or Daniel Thomas after week one, both rebounded very nicely and look two having large roles going forward. Some other names to keep in mind,
Ben Tate RB, Texans
I’m not sure why this guy is still only owned in 60% of ESPN & yahoo leagues. If he’s available in your league get him, like right now. Seriously open a new window and go get him, this article will still be waiting for you after you put in your bid or claim on him. Even when Arian Foster is healthy (which he’s not right now) this guy is going to get looks.
Darren Sproles RB, Saints
Sproles is looking like the best Running Back in New Orleans and his value in the passing game makes him a player that should absolutely be on your roster in PPR leagues. I’m rostering Sproles and using him in games where it looks like the Saints are going to be throwing the ball a lot.
Delone Carter RB, Colts
Carter is catching up on Joseph Addai and already has the short yardage role. If the season continues to go poorly for the Colts Carter’s role will likely expand with the Colts wanting to see what they have in him.
Isaac Redman RB, Steelers
Even with Mendenhall healthy he’s getting touches. If a heavy 2010 workload catches up to Mendenhall, Redman is a no doubt fantasy starter. If you’re a Mendenhall owner you should have this guy anyway.
DeMarco Murray, RB Cowboys
With Felix Jones’ injury Murray’s role is sure to increase and the team seems to be down on Tashard Choice.
Kendall Hunter, RB 49ers
One of the constants in fantasy football is that Frank Gore will eventually get injured at some point every year. When that happens in 2011, you’d better have Hunter on your roster.
We’ll have more possibilities in the coming days, so stay be on the lookout. These guy may not put up Charles-like numbers, but you’re scrambling and you need a guy who can plug in and get you some points and they all can fill that role. Remember we’re here to help and together we can get through devastating fantasy football injuries.
Chris September 18th, 2011
Did you only have time to watch a game or two yesterday? Don’t worry, we got you covered. Thanks to the Magic of NFL Sunday Ticket, we were able to consume an absurd amount of football. Here’s are some quick hits on what we saw
Ray Rice looks really, really good.
Rice (19 carries 107 yards 1 TD, 4 receptions 42 yards 1 TD) had struggled mightily against the Steelers in the past, but he ran harder, faster and finished runs more better than I had seen all last year. Ricky Williams (12 carries 63 yards) also looked good in relief appearances, so the real story is the Baltimore offensive line. Many had (correctly) pointed out that Bryant McKinnie wasn’t at all effective in recent year with the Vikings, but perhaps his release was exactly the motivation he needed because today he was fantastic along with the rest of the offensive line.
Lee Evans will take some time to get a repertoire with Joe Flacco by the looks, he was targeted 4 times and I thought he should’ve come down with at least 2 of them. He was drafted in a lot of leagues, so if he gets dropped he’s worth a look
Tim Hightower was better than the stat sheet
The Redskin’s rushing attack was predictable, but Hightower looked good. When his line wasn’t letting him get hit in the backfield, Hightower ran with great burst. I even thought the Redskins should’ve run more than they did. To their credit the Giants front 7 played very well.
Eli was forcing the ball his receivers. It really looked like he was starring his receivers down before throwing to them. His offensive line didn’t do him any favors, but he needs to be better. Nicks’ injury is a MAJOR concern for the offense as a whole. The Giants really are snake bitten to the point that it might be a good idea to cut bait.
Chris Cooley looked banged up and Fred Davis stepped up big time.
If your opposition only throws for 39 yards you should win by more than a TD
McNabb was worse than advertised. 2.6 YPA. The most concerning thing is the lack of accountability on the part of McNabb. After the game he said “we need to be better.” 7-15 for 39 yards is so hideous that your quarterback has to take at least some accountability. Between this and his outright refusal to wear a QB wristband his attitude in combination with his diminished skills might spell the end for McNabb. The good news for the Vikings is if his horrendous performance continues the team will turn to Ponder quickly.
On the other side, Mike Tolbert played the Darren Sporles role. Even if Matthews is good, Tolbert be a factor. Rivers looked for him in the passing game. As Bob mentioned on the Monday podcast, if Tolbert’s injury limits him in week 2, he is an excellent buy low a week from now.
Patience is a virtue
The Falcons offense needed to be more patient. They didn’t run nearly enough and they couldn’t played dink and dunk in the passing game, but they tried to get too fancy. I hope to see a better gameplan next week.
Matt Forte Looks awesome. We’ve discussed a few times about how we didn’t like the 2nd tier of Running Backs (think Steven Jackson, Michael Turner & MJD), but here’s a guy in a contract year who we love even if the wheels do fall off in Chicago. Forte’s value in the passing game makes him an asset even if the Bears are getting blown out.
Did we mention we really like this year’s group of Tight Ends?
Gresham looks great and the Cincy QBs love to check down. If he’s available he’s a great TE 2. That said the Tight End position is insanely deep seeing how it looks like both Evan Moore and Ben Watson both have some value too.
Colt McCoy looked out of sync, but think Bengals defense is better than people think. Don’t sour on the Browns yet and if someone drops Colt, Greg Little or is trying to deal Hillis at a reduce rate, go get them.
OK so it’s an embarrassment of riches at Tight End
Hi Scott Chandler. The Bills have been looking for a Tight End for a while. I’m not advocating relying on him as your TE1, but you can do worse for a TE2 right now. I want to see another (non blowout) week from the Bills backfield before a pass judgment on any one of their Running Backs.
You can listen to anyone and talk about the struggles of the Chiefs, but right now even if the Chiefs are pathetic that just means they’re going to be down big and throwing to Dwayne Bowe a lot. I’m extremely worried about Jamaal Charles. Teams are going to key on him and I don’t think Todd Haley is a good enough (Head) Coach to overcome this.
This is what happens when you rely on rookies
Lance Kendricks looked like he had the jitters. He had some big drops and the chemistry displayed between he and Sam Bradford was long gone. Greg Salas will step in for Danny Amendola for however long he’s out. I’m not high on his re-draft value, but I think this is fantastic for his dynasty outlook. If someone doesn’t know what they have with Salas, go get him.
Maybe Cadillac Williams just needed an extra year to recover from his knee injury because he looked great. If you’re a Steven Jackson owner you have to overpay to handcuff him with Caddy.
The Eagles run offense looks good, but the offensive line looked confused a few times in passing situations, a team with better pass rush personnel, could give them problems.
Smash mouth football disappears
I hated the way the Lions used Javhid Best, they’re running him between the tackles far too much. Best held up though, I just don’t know how long he can if they Lions continue to use him this way. It’s obvious Matt Stafford & Calvin Johnson have great chemistry. If you paid a high price for Stafford and you invested in a good backup (or Stafford is your backup) it might be time for you to contact your leagues unlucky Peyton Manning owner and sell high on Stafford. I hope Stafford can stay healthy all year and continue to put on a show, but for right now the time to get maximum value for him might be right now.
Tampa Bay didn’t even try to run the ball and looked out of sync. The Lions Defensive Line was in their head, the Bucs bought into hype and looked scared of the Detroit defense. Tampa is supposed to be a smash mouth, I’m worried about the team’s general outlook worried.
The rookie coach blues
Not sure why the Titans needed didn’t give Jammie Harper the ball more than 3 times when it was obvious CJ was off. Tim Hasselbeck was telling people his brother really liked Kenny Britt, this could be a gigantic year Britt & Hasselbeck.
MJD had 23 rushes for 76 yards outside of his TD run. Need Jags to get something out of McCown to free him up. That offensive performance isn’t going to do it most weeks of the year. Mike Thomas appears to be a safe play in PPR leagues, but even though I know he was limited due to injury I’m still worried about Mercedes Lewis.
The Texans’ Super Bowl
Reggie Wayne is going to be fine in long run if Collins stays out there, because Kerry can’t play worse than he did on Sunday, it’s everyone else I’m worried about. I’m very interested in Delone Carter’s role going forward. He may well start to eat into Addai’s touches if things continue to go south.
It’s really hard to judge any Texans player since game was over halfway through 1st quarter. Tate looked great and Ward is hurt, so if for some reason Tate isn’t owned in your league he should be your number 1 target. Hamstrings can take a while to heal, so even if Foster is back next week, I’d expect Tate to have a major role.
The other side of playing rookies
Cam Newton looked great and will be #1 pickup this week. In my opinion Greg Olsen is the big winner in this situation. Steve Smith & Newton will both be inconsistent, they’ll both have some impressive weeks, but they could be maddening in the long run, I’m trying to trade each of them this week.
I want to know what happened to the “just throw it to Fitzy offense?” Kolb & Beanie looked good though, but seriously throw it to Fitzy Kevin Kolb.
If you watched the entire SEA – SF game you deserve free NFL Merchandise.
That’s all I’ve got, this game was horrific.
Jason Garrett needs to start calling the “real” plays again.
Didn’t like the way Felix Jones was used. Note to NFL head coaches, just because a Running Back is your “starter” it doesn’t mean you need to pound him between the tackles, it’s probably a good idea to play to his strengths. Either way this offense is going to be great. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant won’t be playing against Revis and Cromartie every week.
Mark Sanchez looked good, he looked to throw to Plaxico a lot. I don’t think he’ll stay healthy, but if he’s on waiver wire he’s worth a look because Sanchez was actively looking for him for big plays. Keller needs to be more involved. Whenever he’s active I feel like it makes the Jets offense significantly better.
The gloating section
If Aaron Hernandez stays healthy he’s the Patriots deep threat. It’s really tough for defenses to match up to him and Gronkowski. The Patriots even felt comfortable keeping him in to pass block in certain situations, so he’s going to be on the field more often than last year. The running game looks to be frustrating, I hope you didn’t invest in Benjarvis Green-Ellis as a RB 2.
Reggie Bush looked solid, but Dolphins badly need a compliment behind him. Even a guy who could get 3-4 yards a pop between the tackles would do wonders for him. I have serious doubts he could hold up to the pounding of an every down Running Back. Chad Henne is worth a pickup, but before you get to excited, just remember this isn’t the first inferior Quarterback that Pats defense had made look good over the past few years.
Chris September 13th, 2011
After all the mass paranoia & general pessimism months ago, week 1 is here and on time. Enjoy the weekend and watch as much football as you can, but remember oftentimes the worst thing you can do after week 1 is over-react to what happened in week 1. It’s a long season and one good week doesn’t necessarily make for a good season.
Here are the Week 1 edition of Questions and Vibrations; who do I have a good feeling about, who do I have a bad feeling about and what question am I asking going into each game?
Atlanta at Chicago
Question: How much is Michael Turner going to get used? If the Falcons overuse him I don’t think he’s lasting all year.
Good Vibes: Regardless of the outcome, Matt Ryan will be having a good day.
Bad Vibes: Atlanta’s improved pass rush is going to make things tough for Jay Cutler
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Question: Is Peyton Hillis the outlier to the Madden Curse?
Good Vibes: Evan Moore
Bad Vibes: Why did you draft Cedric Benson?
Buffalo at Kansas City
Question: Just how responsible was Charlie Weis for the Chiefs success last year?
Good Vibes: Dwayne Bowe
Bad Vibes: Steve Johnson
Philadelphia at St. Louis
Question: Has Sam Bradford had enough time with Josh McDaniels offense to avoid a sophomore slump?
Good Vibes: Danny Amendola
Bad Vibes: DeSean Jackson
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Question: Is Javhid Best a number one Running Back, or just a dangerous situational player?
Good Vibes: Mike Williams
Bad Vibes: Matt Stafford
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Question: Why exactly do people think that because Maurice Jones Drew’s best Quarterback was cut that it’s a good thing for him?
Good Vibes: Jared Cook
Bad Vibes: MJD
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Question: Everyone said Joe Flacco needed a deep threat, now he has two. Will it even matter?
Good Vibes: Anquan Boldin
Bad Vibes: Ray Rice
Indianapolis at Houston
Question: Are Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark & Joseph Addai good players without Peyton Manning?
Good Vibes: Ben Tate
Bad Vibes: Dallas Clark
NY Giants at Washington
Question: Is Mike Shanahan setting us all up for a serious fall with all the Tim Hightower hype?
Good Vibes: Tim Hightower
Bad Vibes: Eli Manning
Seattle at San Francisco
Question: On one sideline we have a team that talked themselves into signing Tavaris Jackson and making him a starter, on the other a team decided after 6 years of mediocrity with Alex Smith that they couldn’t wait to see what was going to happen in season 7. Somehow, these two teams reside in the same division. Is the NFC West even worse than last year?
Good Vibes: Vernon Davis
Bad Vibes: Zach Miller
Minnesota at San Diego
Question: What happens when the two worst special teams units in the league butt heads?
Good Vibes: Percy Harvin
Bad Vibes: Ryan Matthews
Carolina at Arizona
Question: Even if Kevin Kolb is as bad as the reports have been out of Cardinals camp, he’s still a major upgrade over Derek Anderson right?
Good Vibes: Todd Heap
Bad Vibes: DeAngelo Williams
Dallas at NY Jets
Question: When will Rex Ryan finally open up and really let us know what he’s thinking?
Good Vibes: Dustin Keller
Bad Vibes: Miles Austin
New England at Miami
Question: Will the Patriots struggles in Miami spell doom for fantasy owners this week?
Good Vibes: Aaron Hernandez
Bad Vibes: Reggie Bush
Oakland at Denver
Question: We’re headed to Running Back by committee hell with John Fox all over again aren’t we?
Good Vibes: Willis McGahee
Bad Vibes: Jacoby Ford
Chris September 8th, 2011
Prior to be traded to the Dolphins, Reggie Bush indicated that wherever he went, he wanted 15 touches a game. With this in mind, it would seem that the Dolphins were compliant and intend to grant Reggie his wish since this was public knowledge. This begs the question that many have asked which is, should Reggie Bush actually get 15+ touches a game?
Looking at the box scores Reggie has only actually gotten 15 or more touches in a game 27 times in 5 years, none of which happened in 2010. We all know that Reggie hasn’t been nearly as good as we expected him to be when almost everyone was shocked that the Texans decided to draft Mario Williams over him in the 2006 draft, but does he deserve 15 touches a game? Here is a list of every box score when Reggie has received his desired 15 or more touches in his career,
|2009||Sun 9/27||BUF||W 27-7||13||64||4.9||17||0||3||17||5.7||12||0||0||0|
|2008||Sun 9/7||TB||W 24-20||14||51||3.6||26||0||8||112||14||42||1||0||0|
|2008||Sun 9/14||WSH||L 24-29||10||28||2.8||9||0||7||63||9||14||0||0||0|
|2008||Sun 9/21||DEN||L 32-34||18||73||4.1||23||1||11||75||6.8||23||1||1||1|
|2008||Sun 9/28||SF||W 31-17||10||31||3.1||10||0||5||7||1.4||7||0||0||0|
|2008||Mon 10/6||MIN||L 27-30||12||29||2.4||10||0||7||64||9.1||21||0||2||1|
|2008||Sun 10/12||OAK||W 34-3||14||27||1.9||5||1||3||40||13.3||21||1||0||0|
|2007||Thu 9/6||IND||L 10-41||12||38||3.2||9||0||4||7||1.8||7||0||0||0|
|2007||Sun 9/16||TB||L 14-31||10||27||2.7||10||0||6||43||7.2||11||0||2||0|
|2007||Sun 10/7||CAR||L 13-16||21||67||3.2||13||0||9||52||5.8||12||0||0||0|
|2007||Sun 10/14||SEA||W 28-17||19||97||5.1||22||0||6||44||7.3||17||0||1||1|
|2007||Sun 10/21||ATL||W 22-16||17||54||3.2||9||0||5||19||3.8||8||1||0||0|
|2007||Sun 10/28||SF||W 31-10||10||64||6.4||20||0||7||49||7||25||0||0||0|
|2007||Sun 11/4||JAX||W 41-24||17||72||4.2||12||1||7||43||6.1||18||1||1|
|2007||Sun 11/18||HOU||L 10-23||15||34||2.3||11||0||12||70||5.8||11||0||2||1|
|2007||Sun 12/2||TB||L 23-27||13||64||4.9||14||0||3||13||4.3||13||0||2||1|
|2006||Sun 9/10||CLE||W 19-14||15||67||4.5||18||0||7||52||7.4||14||0||0||0|
|2006||Mon 9/25||ATL||W 23-3||13||53||4.1||13||0||4||19||4.8||9||0||0||0|
|2006||Sun 10/1||CAR||L 18-21||11||22||2||5||0||4||48||12||32||0||1||1|
|2006||Sun 10/8||TB||W 24-21||9||23||2.6||10||0||11||63||5.7||10||0||0||0|
|2006||Sun 10/15||PHI||W 27-24||11||26||2.4||7||0||4||35||8.8||14||0||0||0|
|2006||Sun 11/5||TB||W 31-14||11||-5||-0.5||3||0||4||22||5.5||9||0||0||0|
|2006||Sun 11/12||PIT||L 31-38||10||49||4.9||15||1||7||40||5.7||13||0||1||1|
|2006||Sun 11/19||CIN||L 16-31||13||51||3.9||8||0||8||58||7.3||13||0||0||0|
|2006||Sun 12/3||SF||W 34-10||10||37||3.7||10||3||9||131||14.6||74||1||0||0|
|2006||Sun 12/24||NYG||W 30-7||20||126||6.3||18||1||2||23||11.5||15||0||0||0|
|2006||Sat 1/13||PHI||W 27-24||12||52||4.3||25||1||3||22||7.3||14||0||1||0|
On a per game average in these games Reggie gets 13.33 carries for 48.93 yards (3.67 average) & 0.33 TDs, 6.15 receptions for 45.59 yards (7.42 average) & .22 TDs & .26 fumbles lost per game. Putting this in a fantasy sense Reggie would average 12.27 points per game in a standard league in these games, which if you projected out over last season would make him the 12th overall Running Back in scoring in a standard league. If you use PPR scoring Reggie averages 18.41 points per game which is good enough to be the 3rd best Running Back in scoring when projected over last season.
Now we also know that Reggie Bush is injury prone and the 3.67 yards per carry average is unacceptable, but if running plays are called that better suit him, then that number may well go up. If nothing else the Dolphins could just use him as the superhero version of what Kevin Faulk used to be for the Patriot (or I guess current Danny Woodhead) and we can see from the numbers that he seemingly would at least help the Dolphins offense.
Do I actually believe that Bush can last an entire season and be a top 15 (or 3 in PPR) Running back? No, no I don’t. However his current ADP of 122 overall makes him extremely interesting to me and I do think he will outperform that. Getting a Running Back that can seriously contribute to your team late in your draft can make a huge difference and I think in 2011 Reggie Bush is in a great position to do just that.
Chris July 31st, 2011
Tags: Reggie Bush
As you might have noticed if you listened to our Wednesday podcast (link) or are a follower on twitter (link) I was a tad perplexed by the Panthers re-signing DeAngelo Williams for 5 years 43 million dollars with 21 million in guaranteed money. In case you hadn’t been paying attention, hardly any team relies on just one Running Back anymore, even the Panthers. So for a team that just went 2-14 it would seem that the money they put into Williams would be better spent elsewhere. Especially when you consider that they already have two capable Running Backs in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson already on the roster (at a much lower price then Williams).
Panthers GM Marty Hurney was surprisingly brought back for this year even though he was just as responsible (if not more) for the team’s 2-14 record last year as John Fox. Now he is acting like a guy who’s in the middle of a massive panic attack. I don’t want to repeat myself, but if you’re interested in the ongoing struggles of the Panthers, you should click here to read my GM/Franchise Draft analysis of the team.
The fact is, the day of the Running Back being the be all end all of an NFL team are gone. Look at the list of Super Bowl Champions, you have to go all the way back to the 99 Rams to find a dominant Running Back on a Super Bowl winner (and Marshall Faulk was a different sort of monster).
The William’s contract made me wonder, how do teams that sign Running Backs to “big” contracts fare after they sign them to said contract? I used the criteria of “big” as being a player who made over 6 million/year annually and looked up players who have signed since 2004,
|YEARS||TOTAL VALUE||YEARLY SALARY||YEAR SIGNED||W||L||T||GP||ATT||YDS||YPA||TD||AGE|
|Maurice Jones Drew||4||31.00||7.75||2009||7||9||16||312||1391||4.46||15||24|
I easily could have excluded LT’s contract and just included guys from 2005-present, but thought that including his numbers would further my point. The teams who signed these running backs averaged 7.13 wins 8.8 loses (the teams that made the playoffs were 3-5) & .07 ties (stupid 2008 Eagles). The players themselves averaged 13.53 games played, 258. 67 attempts, 1039.73 yards, 4.02 yards per carry and 7.33 touchdowns. Numbers which given the 16 game season aren’t overly impressive. Any starting Running Back worth anything should be able to get to 1000 yards and most teams look for at the very least 4 yards per carry.
Looking deeper, no one can really fault the Chargers for locking up LT, the Jaguars for signing Maurice Jones Drew or the Chiefs for retaining Jamaal Charles because they were all young up and coming and extremely talented Running Backs. So I wouldn’t call those “bad” contracts, so let’s separate those who signed deals when they were in their mid-twenties (26 and younger) versus those who signed their contract in their late-twenties and older (27 and older),
|Maurice Jones Drew||4||31.00||7.75||2009||7||9||16||312||1391||4.46||15||24|
Though their teams may not have been much better, at the very least the players themselves who were in their mid-twenties performed much better. Players in their mid-twenties who signed “big” contracts averaged 14.88 games played, 283.63 attempts, 1218 yards, 4.35 yards per carry and 8.5 touchdowns in the year after they signed their contract (their teams averaged a flat 7 wins 9 loses). Players in their late-twenties averaged 12 games played, 230.14 attempts, 836 yards, 3.64 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns (the teams averaged 7.29 wins, 8.57 loses & .14 ties).
Let’s not forget that none of these players won a Super Bowl and most of their teams struggled to get to .500. In case you were curious, DeAngelo Williams is 28 years old and is playing with a rookie Quarterback, so things are not looking up at this point.
So when you’re wondering why I say I’m “done with the Panthers”, between this signing and my GM/Franchise Draft analysis you can see why. This isn’t going to be a signing that Marty Hurney talks about when he’s interviewing for his next job.
Note: The Running Backs who just missed the “big” contract threshold were Lamont Jordan, Rudi Johnson, Corey Dillon, Travis Henry, Michael Turner & Ryan Grant. Other then Turner, they weren’t exactly setting the world on fire.
Chris July 29th, 2011
The following sentence has been uttered by our fellow fantasy experts all off-season: “Just imagine Larry Fitzgerald’s numbers if the Cardinals had Kevin Kolb!” The real question is though, how big of a difference would the unproven Quarterback really make? Kevin Kolb had two pretty good Wide Receivers at his disposal in Philadelphia with DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin (and a pretty solid #3 in Jason Avant) and yet Kolb’s passing numbers involving his Wide Receivers are a bit concerning.
Kevin Kolb threw to his Wide Receivers only 49.09% of the time while he threw to non Wide Receivers 50.91% of the time. Compare that to the Cardinals offense where the Quarterbacks (such legendary names as Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall & Richard Bartel) threw to Wide Receivers 74.86% of the time & non Wide Receivers 25.14% of the time. The most concerning part of these numbers is that they seem to indicate that Kolb has a tendency to check down. NFL.com’s Mike Lombardi has been pushing the term “eye level.” A Quarterbacks “eye level” has to do with how far he looks down the field & if the Quarterback is concerned with his Offensive Line & getting hit that his eye level is too shallow (Lombardi’s great if you haven’t checked him out, click to check some of his stuff out on NFL.com). Judging by how often he throws to non Wide Receivers, we could deduce that Kolb’s eye level needs improvement.
Looking deeper into the stats Kevin Kolb averaged 35.8 attempts per game, 22 completions per game (61.45%), 234 yards per game, 1.4 TDs per game and 1 INT per game. Arizona’s group of Keystone Cops (you’re damn right I just made a 1910’s reference!) averages 34.56 attempts per game, 17.81 completions per game (51.53%), 204 yards per game, 0.625 TDs per game and 1.1875 INTs per game.
With these numbers in mind, how much better is the Arizona offense then the Philadelphia offense? Obviously you’d rather have LeSean McCoy over any Arizona Running Back (sorry Beanie Wells fans), but would you rather have DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Riley Cooper & Chad Hall or Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston (who by the sounds won’t be around in 2011), Andre Roberts, Early Doucet, Max Komar & Stephen Williams? The Cardinals Offensive Line may not have been great, but it was probably better then the Eagles Offensive Line. You’d have to give a slight edge to the Eagles Tight Ends, but prior to this season the Cardinals have not wanted Tight Ends to be anything but extra blockers.
On the topic of Tight Ends, though I’m not sure how great Kolb will make the offense as a whole, don’t forget about how excited people were about Brent Celek because of Kevin Kolb going into 2010. Which brings me to Arizona’s rookie Tight End Rob Housler. Housler is strictly a receiving Tight End, so just by drafting him the Cardinals are signaling that they plan to begin to use the Tight End in their passing game. Housler ran a sub 4.5 40 & at 6’5 245 his size-speed combination will create match-up problems. With Kolb’s tendency to check down Housler would get a bump is Kolb ends up going to the Cardinals as most expect him to.
There’s one last thing to acknowledge when looking at Kevin Kolb’s numbers and how often he checked down. LeSean McCoy is a fantastic receiver. Kolb supporters would say that the reason he checked down so much was because of McCoy, so I tell you what, I’m going to completely remove McCoy’s stats from the equation. At first I thought of replacing them with Tim Hightowers (who’s a pretty solid receiver in his own right), but to really hammer my point home I’m going to just flat out remove McCoy’s contributions. If we complete remove all of LeSean McCoy’s receiving statistics while Kevin Kolb was the starting Quarterback, Kolb threw to non Wide Receivers 37.2% of the time and to Receivers 62.8% of the time. As a reminder Arizona Quarterbacks threw to Wide Receivers 74.86% of the time & non Wide Receivers 25.14% of the time, so we’re still not very close.
This is why Bob and I have mentioned several times that we believe the wiser (and better for Arizona fantasy owners) move would be to trade for Kyle Orton instead. There is still a chance that Kevin Kolb may still improve, but if he isn’t careful he may be stealing the “Captain Checkdown” moniker from Trent Edwards.
Chris July 24th, 2011
Tags: Kevin Kolb
5. Which Packer Running Back should we draft?
The Packers coaching staff has continued to talk up James Starks, including calling him “a poor man’s Adrian Peterson.” Meanwhile, Ryan Grant’s cap number is high & although he’s been productive that may have been a result of his teammates & coaches based off his low number of broken tackles. Add in the fact that Starks is a better pass protector than Grant & it would seem that the best case scenario for Grant would be a 50-50 split. Alex Green, though talented is a rookie and it will take time for him to learn the team’s offense and refine his pass blocking technique. If you’re in a deep league I wouldn’t blame you for stashing all the Packer Running Backs, but if you’re only betting on one my recommendation is Starks.
4. Can Peyton Hillis avoid the Madden Curse?
Hillis’ broke down due to overuse last year. The team is saying all the right things about working in Montario Hardesty to lighten Hillis’ load. If Hardesty once again succumbs to injury the Browns need to ensure that they use the rest of their backfield instead of once again increasing Hillis’ workload. People are definitely down on Hillis right now, but he has two bankable skills for fantasy owners, he is excellent in short yardage and is a great route runner with excellent hands. Throw in the fact that Hillis’ number one priority this off-season has been to increase his ball security and though he might not be a top 3-5 Running Back again, he can still be a difference maker for fantasy teams in a short yardage/passing down role.
3. Can Maurice Jones-Drew get another good season out of his bone on bone knee?
People are being very quick to believe that MJD’s bone on bone knee condition is nothing to worry about. The term “bone on bone” typically is a good signal that the end is near for a player’s career. Add in the fact that MJD originally said he began running again in April, only to later contradict himself and say that he wasn’t running until June and I’m officially worried. Some will point to the fact that Jones-Drew originally suffered the injury in the preseason and was still a top fantasy Running Back, but keep in mind that Jones-Drew only faced 2 top 10 run defenses last year. Also, if the team doesn’t go with David Garrard as their starting QB all year and Blaine Gabbert gets a shot Jones-Drew will face a more than his fair share of 8 and 9 man fronts. If the team wants to limit the stress on MJD’s knee they should sprinkle in a dose of Rashad Jennings to help prolong the career of their Pro Bowl Running back. With all this, Jones-Drew’s ADP of 1.08 is a bit too rich for my blood.
2. Is Austin Collie worth the risk?
If healthy, Austin Collie would easily be a top 5-10 WR. Unfortunately based of the fact that Collie suffered 3 concussions in 6 weeks it’s tough for me to think that he’s going to remain concussion free going forward. Typically this type of concern would drop him into a range that I would gauge as a reasonable value. At this point it would seem not seeing how his current ADP in Draftmaster leagues is 42. It’s very hard for me to invest a late 3rd or early 4rth round pick in a guy that’s such a gigantic injury risk. It would seem that Collie thrives running routes in the middle of the field and is best used in the slot and unfortunately that is the most dangerous area of the field.
1. Is Matt Stafford finally healthy?
Think about the Detroit offense as a whole. With Stafford’s arm strength and overall ability it would completely open up the field and the gameplan. The team is full of relevant fantasy players; Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Sheffler all get major bumps in value if Stafford is healthy. The team and Stafford both are saying that this is the healthiest he’s been since he came into the league and if that’s the case we may be looking at a dynamic group of fantasy players on the Lions roster. Don’t forget that the Lions play in a dome, so that’s 8 climate controlled games that they’ll play on a fast track that will really bring out the athleticism of Johnson, Best & Young. It might not end up being the greatest show on turf, but there is a ton of potential value to be had from this Lions offense.
Chris July 5th, 2011
Check out version 1.0 of our TE rankings (click on text to view rankings)
Chris July 4th, 2011
Check out version 1.0 of our WR rankings (click on text to view rankings)
Chris July 4th, 2011
Check out version 1.0 of our RB rankings (click on text to view rankings)
Chris July 3rd, 2011
Check out version 1.0 of our QB rankings (click on text to view rankings)
Chris July 2nd, 2011
Chris June 29th, 2011
The good people at http://www.bodog.eu/ have unveiled their odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Here’s a quick breakdown (quick note: allpurposeroto.com does not endorse gambling of any kind [that you know of] if you choose to bet on any of these players you do so of your own volition)
Cam Newton – odds 11/2
Who’s he throwing to if Steve Smith really is available for a 3rd round pick?
Julio Jones – odds 11/2
If Matty Ice likes him as much as it sounds like he does could be an interesting one.
A.J. Green – odds 13/2
Probably the most talented player, but has a rookie throwing to him.
Mark Ingram – odds 15/2
If the Falcons mortgaging their draft (and their team depth in the process) comes back to haunt them and the team struggles, Ingram is a steal at these odds. Offensive Rookies of the year typically come from teams with winning records and the Saints are a perennial contender.
Mikel LeShoure – odds 12/1
If the recent NFL has taught us anything it’s that you can find a big time Running Back late in drafts (or on the free agent pile), so I’m still struggling to figure out why the Lions have now paid a premium price to trade up for a Running Back two years running.
Christian Ponder – odds 14/1
Has top flight weapons if he has time to get the ball to them.
Shane Vereen – odds 14/1
It currently appears that the Patriots will carry 34 running backs on their roster. Vereen’s versatility makes him interesting, but he may not get his opportunity until too late in the year to be the ROY.
Stevan Ridley – odds 14/1
Blown away that he has the same odds as Vereen. Feel like his odds should be longer for this to be worthwhile.
Titus Young – odds 14/1
Really like Titus, but the Lions offense would have to be 99 Rams-esque for him to get consideration.
Andy Dalton – odds 15/1
Can’t give him consideration since he’ll be haunting my dreams for the foreseeable future.
Daniel Thomas – odds 15/1
There are no other RBs on the Dolphin’s roster, how exactly is he a bigger longshot then Stevan Ridley?
Jake Locker – odds 16/1
Torrey Smith – odds 16/1
Hard to imagine him putting up the numbers to justify being ROY.
Ryan Williams – odds 18/1
God no (read the Arizona GM/Franchise Draft Analysis for further clarification).
Jonathan Baldwin – odds 20/1
The team runs way too much for this to happen.
Randall Cobb – odds 20/1
A Greg Jennings injury could make this happen. Has a much better chance than Torrey Smith.
Blaine Gabbert – odds 22/1
Don’t know if he has a talented enough receiving core to help him win.
Kyle Rudolph – odds 25/1
A Tight End has never won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Like him long term, but not a ROY
Leonard Hankerson – odds 25/1
As I said previously, ROYs typically come from winning teams, are the Skins beating the Giants, Eagles or Cowboys?
MY PICK: Jake Locker, with a side of Julio Jones & Daniel Thomas.
Chris June 28th, 2011