UPDATED 7/6/12 – With the hype train 100% behind Lloyd & Hernandez I figured now would be a good time to re-post this.
Brandon Lloyd’ s signing with the Patriots has been speculated on since the beginning of this season. When he officially signed with the team, his ascent of draft boards began. The question is though, why are we excited? Lloyd’s current average draft position puts him in the 6th round range, which for most is a WR 2/3.
So let’s take a look at the ideal Patriot’s offense. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez will all be productive in a system that they all know and have been successful in. With this in mind just how valuable is the 4rth option in a good offense for fantasy owners? Let’s take a look at how the 4rth best receiving option has done in some recent prolific NFL offenses.
2011 Packers
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Jordy Nelson | 68 | 1263 | 18.6 | 15 |
| Greg Jennings | 67 | 949 | 14.2 | 9 |
| Jermichael Finley | 55 | 767 | 13.9 | 8 |
| James Jones | 38 | 635 | 16.7 | 7 |
2011 Patriots
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Wes Welker | 122 | 1569 | 12.9 | 9 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 90 | 1327 | 14.7 | 17 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 79 | 910 | 11.5 | 7 |
| Deion Branch | 51 | 702 | 13.8 | 5 |
2011 Saints
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Jimmy Graham | 99 | 1310 | 13.2 | 11 |
| Darren Sproles | 86 | 710 | 8.3 | 7 |
| Marques Colston | 80 | 1143 | 14.3 | 8 |
| Lance Moore | 52 | 627 | 12.1 | 8 |
2007 Patriots
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Wes Welker | 112 | 1175 | 10.5 | 8 |
| Randy Moss | 98 | 1493 | 15.2 | 23 |
| Kevin Faulk | 47 | 383 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Donte Stallworth | 46 | 697 | 15.2 | 3 |
2004 Colts
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Marvin Harrison | 86 | 1113 | 12.9 | 15 |
| Reggie Wayne | 77 | 1210 | 15.7 | 12 |
| Brandon Stokley | 68 | 1077 | 15.8 | 10 |
| Edgerrin James | 51 | 483 | 9.5 | 0 |
2000 Rams
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Isaac Bruce | 87 | 1471 | 16.9 | 9 |
| Torry Holt | 82 | 1635 | 19.9 | 6 |
| Marshall Faulk | 81 | 830 | 10.2 | 8 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 53 | 734 | 13.8 | 4 |
1999 Rams
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Marshall Faulk | 87 | 1048 | 12 | 5 |
| Isaac Bruce | 77 | 1165 | 15.1 | 12 |
| Torry Holt | 52 | 788 | 15.2 | 6 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 36 | 677 | 18.8 | 8 |
1998 Vikings
| Name | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Cris Carter | 78 | 1011 | 13 | 12 |
| Randy Moss | 69 | 1313 | 19 | 17 |
| Andrew Glover | 35 | 522 | 14.9 | 5 |
| Jake Reed | 34 | 474 | 13.9 | 4 |
So under normal circumstances, we’d expect the fourth best receiver on a prolific offense to average 45 catches for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the recent best case scenario for this situation being 52 catches for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns.
So, is this production worthy of a 6th round pick in your re-draft leagues? Would you rather have this sort of production over DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker among others?
Before you accuse me of badmouthing him I think what Lloyd brings to the Patriots offense is fantastic in a non fantasy related sense. He’ll really help the running game along with Welker, Gronkowski & Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be a sought after fantasy pick.
Now if you are a firm Lloyd believer, then who is going to fall off? Is Tom Brady really going to totally abandon his safety blanket Wes Welker? Will Rob Gronkowski shrink 6 inches and stop catching TDs? The most viable argument would be that Hernandez & Lloyd will each cut into each other, crushing both of their respective values.
At this juncture you could be playing the fantasy football equivalent of Russian Roulette with receivers not named Rob Gronkowski on the Patriots. Be careful out there.
