UPDATED 7/6/12 – With the hype train 100% behind Lloyd & Hernandez I figured now would be a good time to re-post this.
Brandon Lloyd’ s signing with the Patriots has been speculated on since the beginning of this season. When he officially signed with the team, his ascent of draft boards began. The question is though, why are we excited? Lloyd’s current average draft position puts him in the 6th round range, which for most is a WR 2/3.
So let’s take a look at the ideal Patriot’s offense. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez will all be productive in a system that they all know and have been successful in. With this in mind just how valuable is the 4rth option in a good offense for fantasy owners? Let’s take a look at how the 4rth best receiving option has done in some recent prolific NFL offenses.
So under normal circumstances, we’d expect the fourth best receiver on a prolific offense to average 45 catches for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the recent best case scenario for this situation being 52 catches for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns.
So, is this production worthy of a 6th round pick in your re-draft leagues? Would you rather have this sort of production over DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker among others?
Before you accuse me of badmouthing him I think what Lloyd brings to the Patriots offense is fantastic in a non fantasy related sense. He’ll really help the running game along with Welker, Gronkowski & Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be a sought after fantasy pick.
Now if you are a firm Lloyd believer, then who is going to fall off? Is Tom Brady really going to totally abandon his safety blanket Wes Welker? Will Rob Gronkowski shrink 6 inches and stop catching TDs? The most viable argument would be that Hernandez & Lloyd will each cut into each other, crushing both of their respective values.
At this juncture you could be playing the fantasy football equivalent of Russian Roulette with receivers not named Rob Gronkowski on the Patriots. Be careful out there.