Why are people excited about Brandon Lloyd?

UPDATED 7/6/12 – With the hype train 100% behind Lloyd & Hernandez I figured now would be a good time to re-post this.

Brandon Lloyd’ s signing with the Patriots has been speculated on since the beginning of this season. When he officially signed with the team, his ascent of draft boards began. The question is though, why are we excited? Lloyd’s current average draft position puts him in the 6th round range, which for most is a WR 2/3.

So let’s take a look at the ideal Patriot’s offense. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez will all be productive in a system that they all know and have been successful in. With this in mind just how valuable is the 4rth option in a good offense for fantasy owners? Let’s take a look at how the 4rth best receiving option has done in some recent prolific NFL offenses.

 

2011 Packers

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Jordy Nelson 68 1263 18.6 15
Greg Jennings 67 949 14.2 9
Jermichael Finley 55 767 13.9 8
James Jones 38 635 16.7 7

2011 Patriots

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Wes Welker 122 1569 12.9 9
Rob Gronkowski 90 1327 14.7 17
Aaron Hernandez 79 910 11.5 7
Deion Branch 51 702 13.8 5

2011 Saints

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Jimmy Graham 99 1310 13.2 11
Darren Sproles 86 710 8.3 7
Marques Colston 80 1143 14.3 8
Lance Moore 52 627 12.1 8

2007 Patriots

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Wes Welker 112 1175 10.5 8
Randy Moss 98 1493 15.2 23
Kevin Faulk 47 383 8.1 1
Donte Stallworth 46 697 15.2 3

2004 Colts

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Marvin Harrison 86 1113 12.9 15
Reggie Wayne 77 1210 15.7 12
Brandon Stokley 68 1077 15.8 10
Edgerrin James 51 483 9.5 0

2000 Rams

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Isaac Bruce 87 1471 16.9 9
Torry Holt 82 1635 19.9 6
Marshall Faulk 81 830 10.2 8
Az-Zahir Hakim 53 734 13.8 4

1999 Rams

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Marshall Faulk 87 1048 12 5
Isaac Bruce 77 1165 15.1 12
Torry Holt 52 788 15.2 6
Az-Zahir Hakim 36 677 18.8 8

1998 Vikings

Name Rec Yds Y/R TD
Cris Carter 78 1011 13 12
Randy Moss 69 1313 19 17
Andrew Glover 35 522 14.9 5
Jake Reed 34 474 13.9 4

So under normal circumstances, we’d expect the fourth best receiver on a prolific offense to average 45 catches for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns. With the recent best case scenario for this situation being 52 catches for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns.

So, is this production worthy of a 6th round pick in your re-draft leagues? Would you rather have this sort of production over DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker among others?

Before you accuse me of badmouthing him I think what Lloyd brings to the Patriots offense is fantastic in a non fantasy related sense. He’ll really help the running game along with Welker, Gronkowski & Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be a sought after fantasy pick.

Now if you are a firm Lloyd believer, then who is going to fall off? Is Tom Brady really going to totally abandon his safety blanket Wes Welker? Will Rob Gronkowski shrink 6 inches and stop catching TDs? The most viable argument would be that Hernandez & Lloyd will each cut into each other, crushing both of their respective values.

At this juncture you could be playing the fantasy football equivalent of Russian Roulette with receivers not named Rob Gronkowski on the Patriots. Be careful out there.

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